Bitcoin bulls are doing their best to keep the price above $115,000, but sellers aren’t backing down easily. The market is feeling the pressure from broader macroeconomic signals. Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom Fund, warned that weak credit markets and slowing job growth in the U.S. could drag BTC back down to $100K and push ETH to around $3,000. On top of that, spot ETF flows show traders are getting cautious. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw a hefty $812 million in outflows last Friday, and Ethereum ETFs ended a 20-day inflow streak with $152 million in redemptions, according to SoSoValue.

Bitcoin broke below the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern last Friday, but the bulls managed to hold the line at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near $112,262. Right now, the 20-day SMA around $117,237 is starting to slope downward, and the RSI is hovering just under 50 a sign that bears are making a move to regain control. Any bounce from current levels is likely to face heavy resistance between the neckline and the 20-day SMA. If BTC gets rejected from that zone and slips lower again, there’s a real risk of a breakdown below $110,530.

If that key support gives way, we could see a fast drop toward $105,000 and possibly $100,000. On the flip side, if bulls can drive the price back above the 20-day SMA and hold it there, momentum could shift in their favor, opening the door for a retest of the $120,000–$123,218 zone. Ethereum is holding ground in the support zone between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels around $3,422 and $3,300, respectively. That suggests dip buyers are active, but the relief bounce may run into selling pressure near the 20-day SMA at $3,652. If bulls can push through that level, ETH could climb toward $3,941 and even test $4,094, where sellers are likely to put up a strong fight. However, if ETH turns down from the 20-day SMA and breaks below $3,354, it would suggest the bulls are losing strength, and the pair could then slide toward the 50-day SMA near $3,013.

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